Kelly Calculator

Introducing the Fliff-enhanced Kelly Criterion, crafted by John Kelly Jr. This powerful tool aids both handicappers and blackjack enthusiasts in effective bankroll management for diverse events like NFL, NHL, NCAA, MLB, and more.

Discover more insights and optimize your strategy with the following information.

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Results
Stakes for parlays of size:
1
All

Inputs:

  • Event Type Selector: Choose between simultaneous independent events or mutually exclusive outcomes.
  • # Events/Outcomes: Specify the number of events or outcomes.
  • Consecutive Series: Determine the number of times the bet sequence is repeated.
  • Kelly Multiplier: Set the true Kelly multiplier to customize risk exposure.
  • Starting Bankroll: Initiate your bankroll, either as a percentage or a dollar figure.
  • US/Decimal Odds Selector: Indicate if the odds input will be in US or decimal format.
  • US/Decimal Odds: Input the odds for the bets.
  • Win Probability/Edge Odds Selector: Specify whether input is in win probability or edge.
  • Win Probability/Edge: Input win probability or edge for each bet.
  • Calculate Kelly: Compute optimal stakes and expectations.

Outputs-Inputs:

  • Stakes: View the Kelly-optimal stakes for singles and parlays.
  • Outputs:
    • Expected Profit/Growth: Display expected profit and growth from a single set of bets.
    • Expected Bankroll/Median Bankroll: Showcase expected mean and median bankrolls after consecutive series.
    • Calculate Expectations: Recalculate expectations after modifying stake sizes.

Example: Suppose you face 5 bets on football sides at -110, each with an expected win rate of 55%. Calculate optimal bet sizes and expectations, projecting the bankroll after 17 weeks with a starting bankroll of $15,000.

Customize your inputs, click “Calculate Kelly,” and unveil the optimal stakes for singles and parlays. Explore expected profit, growth, and estimated bankroll outcomes. Adjust your strategy by setting stakes for specific parlays to zero and click “Calculate Expectations” to observe the impact on expectations.

Elevate your betting game with the Fliff Kelly Criterion for strategic bankroll management.

Introducing the Fliff-optimized Kelly Criterion Calculator, a cutting-edge tool inspired by the mathematical genius of John Kelly Jr. This calculator is tailored for sports enthusiasts, aiding in optimal bankroll management by determining the ideal wager amount based on disparities between true odds and those offered by premier sports betting sites.

Fliff-Enhanced Kelly Criterion Calculator:

What is the Fliff-Optimized Kelly Criterion?

Developed by John Kelly Jr. at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories in Texas, the Fliff-enhanced Kelly Criterion is a robust formula designed to calculate the proportionate bet size relative to your bankroll and perceived edge. With the formula f* = (bp – q) / b, where f represents the fraction of your bankroll to bet, b denotes decimal odds, p signifies the probability of winning, and q is the probability of losing, this calculator simplifies the complexities.

Advantages of Using the Fliff-Optimized Kelly Criterion Calculator:

  • Streamlined Complexity: Simplifies the intricate mathematical equation, making it accessible to a broad audience.
  • Versatile Application: Works seamlessly for 15 different bet options on simultaneous events or mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event.
  • Optimal Bankroll Management: Allows sports bettors to manage their bankrolls efficiently, maximizing expected growth and gaining a long-term advantage in sports wagering.

How to Utilize the Fliff-Optimized Kelly Criterion Calculator:

Follow these steps to unlock your optimal bet stake using the Fliff-enhanced Kelly Criterion:

  1. Choose the event type – opt for independent events or exclusive outcomes.
  2. Enter the number of events or exclusive outcomes (up to 15).
  3. Specify the consecutive series, indicating how many times you plan to place this sequence of bets.
  4. Select the Kelly Multiplier – enter a fractional Kelly or a bold multiplier.
  5. Set your starting bankroll as a monetary figure or a percentage.
  6. Choose between US odds or decimal odds for the Kelly Criterion.
  7. Input the odds for each bet option, and the calculator will reveal implied win probability or edge.
  8. Click “Calculate” to unveil the results.

The Fliff-Optimized Kelly Criterion Calculator provides optimal stake recommendations for single bets and parlays. Discover your expected profit and growth after the first betting set and consecutive betting sets. Tailor your strategy with ideal bet sizes for parlays, ensuring precise amounts and strategic probabilities.

An Example: Consider a scenario where you plan to bet on four teams weekly to cover the spread at odds of -110 over the 17-week NFL season. With a $1,000 bankroll, using the standard Kelly Criterion with US odds, input your preferences into the Fliff-enhanced calculator. Receive optimal stake recommendations, anticipate earnings, and strategize for long-term success.

Who Should Use the Fliff-Optimized Kelly Criterion Calculator:

Ideal for all sports and casino bettors, the Fliff-Optimized Kelly Criterion Calculator caters to horse racing fans, novices, and pros alike. Whether you’re entering the number of horses in a race or making picks for various sports, this calculator empowers users with precise insights for informed betting decisions. Elevate your betting game with Fliff’s advanced optimization.

Other Calculators

  1. Arbitrage Calculator:
    • Calculates the total value attained (positive or negative) from a completed multiway scalp, along with the bet size on each outcome for smooth results.
  2. Free Play Value Calculator:
    • Determines the risk-free real dollar profit achievable by betting and hedging a free play of a given size.
  3. Half-Point Calculator:
    • Calculates the value of buying or selling half-points for MLB totals and NBA, NFL, NCAA Basketball, and NCAA Football spreads and totals.
  4. Odds Calculator:
    • Computes Kelly stakes for bets on up to 15 simultaneous events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event.
  5. Parlay Calculator:
    • Determines parlay bet payouts and associated premiums based on a set of underlying bet odds.
  6. Poisson Calculator:
    • Calculates win probabilities and odds for one or two variable Poisson-style proposition bets, given an underlying win percentage.
  7. Reverse Bets Calculator:
    • Determines the maximum win and loss amount for a given reverse bet, along with situational results based on whether each underlying game wins, loses, or pushes.
  8. Round Robin Calculator:
    • Calculates the maximum win and loss amount for a given round-robin, along with situational results based on whether each underlying game wins, loses, or pushes.
  9. Spread/ML Calculator:
    • Approximately converts between spreads and moneylines for both pro and college football and basketball.
  10. Streak Calculator:
    • Determines the probability of losing a streak of wagers over the course of a wager series of specified length.
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